Professor of Statistics & Data Science

University of Warwick


Email address:

Professor Keith Abrams

Leadership Team


Keith Abrams is Professor of Medical Statistics, at the University of Warwick, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Senior Investigator Emeritus, and Deputy Associate Director of the Health Data Research (HDR) UK Midlands Substantive Site. His research interests, for which he has an international reputation, are primarily concerned with the development and application of Bayesian statistical methods in Health Technology Assessment (HTA), in particular regarding clinical trials, evidence synthesis, and economic decision modelling, and Non-Communicable Disease (NCD) epidemiology. This work is primarily supported with funding from EU, HDR UK, Medical Research Council (MRC), NIHR and industry (with a total value in excess of £20M over the last 5 years).

Keith has been extensively involved with the UK NIHR HTA Programme and UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) Technology Appraisal process since their inception. He was a member of the NICE Technology Appraisals Committee for over 8 years until 2015, is a member of the NICE Decision Support Unit and NICE Technical Support Unit, and has acted as a consultant to the NICE Scientific Advice Programme. He is also a Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society, and a Chartered Statistician.

He has published widely in both substantive and methodological areas [h-index 86] including co-authoring books on Methods for Meta-Analysis in Medical Research, Bayesian Approaches to Clinical Trials and Healthcare Evaluation, and Evidence Synthesis for Decision Making in Healthcare, in addition to co-editing one of the first texts on Methods for Evidence-based Healthcare.Keith has extensive experience over the last 20 years as a consultant to both the pharmaceutical and healthcare consultancy sectors, providing both methodological and strategic HTA advice across a wide range of therapeutic areas, as well as internationally to governments and reimbursement agencies on approaches to developing health policy.


Keith’s research interests centre around the development, evaluation, application and translation of (Bayesian) statistical methods in Health Technology Assessment (HTA) and Population Health Data Science & Policy, more specifically;

  • Design & analysis of clinical trials – particularly methods for dealing with treatment switching & extrapolation
  • Evidence synthesis – particularly methods for dealing with; heterogeneity (statistical, clinical & methodological), Indirect Comparisons (IC)/Network Meta-Analysis (NMA) & inclusion of observational/Real World Evidence (RWE)
  • Methods for estimating comparative effectiveness using observational/non-randomised data in HTA
  • Disease natural history modelling – particularly in rare and/or complex diseases (e.g. multi-morbidity)
  • Methods for the development of dynamic risk prediction models using linked exposure/biomarker and clinical outcome data obtained from Electronic Health Records (EHRs)

Current funded projects include;

  • NIHR HTA Programme – United Kingdom Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation (UK TAVI) Trial
  • MRC/NIHR Methods Research Programme – Inferring relative treatment effects from combined randomised and observational data
  • HDR UK – Measuring & Understanding Multimorbidity using Routine Data in the UK (MUrMuR-UK)
  • MRC-NIHR – UK-REACH: United Kingdom Research Study into Ethnicity And COVID-19 outcomes in Healthcare workers
  • MRC/NIHR Methods Research Programme – Novel approaches of multi-parameter evidence synthesis and decision modelling for efficient evaluation of diagnostic health technologies in HTA decision making with use of electronic health records
  • NIHR RfPB Programme – wEight chanGes, caRdio-mEtabolic risks and morTality in patients with hyperthyroidism (EGRET): a CPRD–HES linked cohort study

Additional HDR Midlands Team Members

Firoza Davies

Patient & Public Representative
East Midlands

Mr Colin Monckton

Director of Performance and Information
Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust

Rachel Caswell

Senior Healthcare Analyst
Midlands Analyst Network Lead Strategy Unit

Kathie McPeake

Macmillan Living with Cancer Programme Manager
NHS Lincolnshire Integrated Care Board